Description

This analysis provides a forecast of KAS prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-06 0.043650 0.050244 0.057119 0.064788 0.073074 0.081728 0.091420
2025-04-13 0.031902 0.041248 0.051662 0.063972 0.077980 0.093288 0.111149
2025-04-20 0.027193 0.038592 0.051962 0.068444 0.087875 0.109750 0.135934
2025-04-27 0.021065 0.033056 0.047893 0.066953 0.090190 0.117062 0.149964
2025-05-04 0.018101 0.030895 0.047427 0.069350 0.096748 0.129051 0.169234
2025-05-11 0.014648 0.027499 0.044913 0.068791 0.099390 0.136162 0.182611
2025-05-18 0.012752 0.025971 0.044602 0.070833 0.105105 0.146887 0.200265
2025-05-25 0.011017 0.024397 0.044009 0.072334 0.110017 0.156569 0.216654
2025-06-01 0.008630 0.021386 0.041061 0.070389 0.110271 0.160315 0.225684
2025-06-08 0.006707 0.018774 0.038400 0.068587 0.110509 0.163892 0.234401
2025-06-15 0.005883 0.017983 0.038397 0.070460 0.115599 0.173622 0.250798
2025-06-22 0.004983 0.016868 0.037764 0.071336 0.119290 0.181540 0.264941
2025-06-29 0.004421 0.016426 0.038317 0.074171 0.126011 0.193856 0.285291
2025-07-06 0.003424 0.014811 0.036790 0.073850 0.128394 0.200621 0.298793
2025-07-13 0.003296 0.015208 0.038737 0.078867 0.138338 0.217443 0.325310
2025-07-20 0.002381 0.013346 0.036500 0.077265 0.138820 0.221692 0.335671
2025-07-27 0.002065 0.012998 0.036967 0.079893 0.145355 0.234042 0.356560
2025-08-03 0.001510 0.011694 0.035481 0.079282 0.147137 0.239977 0.369120
2025-08-10 0.001271 0.011320 0.035753 0.081514 0.153076 0.251559 0.389107
2025-08-17 0.001027 0.010808 0.035689 0.083153 0.158128 0.261948 0.407570
2025-08-24 0.000634 0.009355 0.033480 0.081030 0.157460 0.264421 0.415538
2025-08-31 0.000360 0.008081 0.031451 0.079060 0.156910 0.266980 0.423572
2025-09-07 0.000278 0.007835 0.031716 0.081106 0.162491 0.278081 0.443028